Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Gill Replies To President Michel

I am writing to provide another view on TODAY headline on Monday, September 26th, 2011, titled “ We have proved our resilience as a nation”.

Briefly, this headline covered an interview with President Michel of the Republic of Seychelles.

When posed with a question on how the President sees Seychelles economic future over the next Five (5) years, he said that his view is optimistic, and said that: “we have weathered the 2008 global financial crisis and we have proved our resilience as a nation, especially in the spirit of leve Debrouye”.

The global financial crisis of 2008 started in September of that year. In July of that year, we issued a notice to Lehman Brothers that we would not be able to make the August 3, 2008 interest payment of $3 Million to Lehman Brothers. Seychelles could not raise $3 Million, think about that. The repayment date came, and it left us. We failed to make the payments, and defaulted on the Lehman Brothers Bond. Our country financial rating was downgraded and we enjoyed a dubious title of most indebted country in the world per capita.

To refresh Mr. President’s recollection of this dark period under his leadership, by October 30, 2008, he went on SBC and announced that Seychelles will take on an IMF Standby Arrangement Facility (SAF). This money was needed, because we were running out of fuel and our suppliers had to be paid or the vehicles in Victoria, would stop running.

After we were successful in renegotiating and rescheduling our debts, and pardoning about 20% of our debts under a hair cut program, our debt repayment was rescheduled to commence in 2012 (that is next year) , allowing Mr. President sufficient time to get through another election.

Well, 2012 is just around the corner, and the debts will now have to start to be repaid. This whole scenario does not show that in the face of the first world financial crisis we were “resilient” as Mr. President Michel suggest. To the contrary, it shows we are very “vulnerable” to external shocks and external events. It is for this precise reason why Seychelles cannot afford to

have a half baked democracy. Faced with great challenges ahead, we need the real thing in order to foster real social cohesion in order that we may with success tackle the challenges ahead as a country that is focused on those challenges.

The world is sending alarm bells of a double dip recession. This time, it is Europe, our main markets for Fish and Tourism are under threat of a long term downturn of perhaps Ten (1) years. IMF said last week, it may not have enough money to bail out Europe economies in this crisis which is about to blow.

 Already, both of our main industries are under threat of under productivity and severe under performance. A double dip recession will aggravate this. This is no time to venture under funded into emerging markets that will take years to establish. This is a time to consolidate our industries in markets where we already have a footing and a track record. This is basic business common sense when faced with a prolong downturn and shortage of cash all around to get everything done that needs to be done. Spread ourselves too thin, we will not develop any new markets and we may lose traditional ones as we saw in the UK recently.

We cannot hold our breath on oil reserves either as Mr. President suggest. As the world recession sets in, demand for oil will drop worldwide. As demand drops, the price for oil will slump. Already Sweet Crude Oil is trading at $82.00 per barrel a Four year low this week. Offshore exploration and drilling is not viable at those prices.

On New National Assembly…

Mr. Michel says he welcomes a National Assembly that keeps checks and balances on the Executive. This is a very nice wish. But in the PPB’s it is Mr. Michel himself, on SBC, that tells us, he will personally see to it that the National Assembly MNA’s do a good job and work hard. He even endorses these candidates openly without letting the Public pick them, without Executive interference. This is a complete dubious contradiction, again.

In a Democracy, the opposition is chosen by the people in the opposition community, not by the ruling party. When the ruling party chooses the opposition, this is commonly referred to as an autocracy or a one party state.

I ask Mr. Michel to clarify exactly what he means, because he has me dumfounded as to what he really means. In this light, it is important to note, that constructive debate can only come about, if one is willing to lose an argument, and not take it personally if he is wrong. It is through the fair and open battle of ideas, that a country grows.

We Are Very Vulnerable In 2011

The future of Seychelles hangs on a precipice of becoming a failed state under James Michel, though he is not responsible for all the calamities, but takes credit for some of them. A second Supplementary budget needs to be passed to keep the government running. Today, offices are running on credit. Devaluation is a high possibility in the coming months. Our Gross Domestic Product may slip by -10% this year, sending us into an official depression, not recession, like Europe is toying with. Piracy is a continued scourge, menacing Tourism and Fisheries. Inflation will creep back in less spending power of the Seychelles Rupee. This means our people, all of them, will suffer collectively.

Next year and years to come, we will have to make great sacrifices to pay down the debts that brought the title of most indebted Nation in the World upon us in those late months of 2008.

How will Seychelles move forward, if it is highly vulnerable and our leadership is telling us we are resilient?

Thank you.

Christopher Gill


Anonymous said...

We are told there is a very macabre, sinister feeling in Sechelles Seychelles.

We have read Mr Christopher Gill evaluation of what to expect after the National Assembly election and 2012.

We have addressed the issues of the Big four including KPMG.

We have stated that - that exile/refugee program - economic aspect is half implimented. Those who understand and have taken the time to study exile/refugee repatriation Program how they work and the problematic.

Without that Program in the first place Seychelles, its people, the SPPF were and would have been in a very big mess. If anybody deserve a Medal in Seychelles after the Communist Era it is our person.

What we fail to understand, they have revamped the Old Building and rebranded it Seychelles University - the quality of the subject - surely if one is taking a BA or MA in economy - you need to study and attack the real stuff, not crap and the role of that SIROP exile/refugee program many aspects. What about the Oppositions.

Beside our person - on the international and regional stage those who monitored, worked and benefited from that exile/refugee program. Their views of the need to take it to its objective.

This include Finance, at the sme time individual like President FA Rene, President JA Michel, Sir James Mancham, the Minister of Finance, the business supporters of SPPF/PL attitude - let him come again and we will rip him better/properly. The Opposition ought to challenge those individuals - because at the end of the day when Seychelles is destroy/go down, these people will not give a pin or care.

Anonymous said...

The need to note in particular Mr Christopher Gill underlining of the effects of the "Pirate politic" on our Fishing, Tourism and Trade/import - Export.

President Obama just did not fall from planet Jupiter or Saturn. There is a reason he was elected.

What it the total budget of NATO and the Allies to fight Pirates.

We would take the same approach as we did live Aid the first time. Get and engage those involved in Pirate - put a very concrete concept on the Table. We are not that young anymore - we ought to be able to copy/manage it through. After the so call Arab Spring, unless energetic effort is made to salvage and rebuild the important work to build a modern African Union - where young Africans will be happy to stay at home and work.

There are capacities out there which will surprise, the Defence Force of Seychelles, the USA and India, Russia, China know what we are talking about if it were activited. We would not have said what we have if we were not aware of the posibilities.

We ask/politely request the Oppositon parties in Seychelles to note the issues we have mentioned here. Because President JA Michel, the SPPF/PL have a very terible record of absconding/hijacking others agenda, market/sell it as there agenda - idea. This ought to be the Opposition idea and contribution.

Anonymous said...

President James R Mancham is excluded. Because of what we know and not prepared to share in Public.

Anonymous said...

Today we should all be enjoying a flowering democracy.The cold war is ove.But the greedy rogue dictator still want to hangs on to power though all his failures.But the writing is on the wall.And if it is not clear enough-The people want and will have their deserved freedom.Stop this rogue regime now.Stop Pp from taking the country into the club of fali state as North Korea.


Jeanne D'Arc

Anonymous said...

Jeanne D'arc; your "boycott" shout today sounds somewhat half-hearted!
What's wrong baby are you running out of steam?

Anonymous said...

Well i am on the ground doing my part to mobilize as much of people possible and i can tell you they are ready not only for the boycott but if necessary to take into the streets 24 hours to gain back their rights.

For me the Boycott has laready achive part of it goal namely to expose Pp_PDM and how can i porve that-well it unity of the opposition,the dossolvement of the Assembly,the creation of a fake Party,An Elctoral commisioner appointed by PP all this is a reasult of the boycott.It is in fact Historic as the motivation of all those brave guys going doors to doors even with PP threat to contribute to the suceess.

I think Pp is runiing out of steam ,Michel is on a hot plate ,they do not know how handle the boycott,we will keep the pressure:Did we tell you SFP will be not those fake parties?Do you see the different of performance,you should not only commnet but praise such sucess ,i am sure behind close doors RAM is jealous of the quality,integrity,seriuosness,determination of the leaders and memebers of this new ,stronf inffluecail party.
The fight has begun it will stop when victory is achieved.

Jeanne D'Arc

Anonymous said...

Jeanne D'arc/Gill
Have you also considered the democratic rights of the 56 percent of electorate and their families?

Do you know what a civil war is and can you handle it?

Anonymous said...

That is 56 percent of Pp electorates!

Anonymous said...

We've been on the losing end of the civil war for decades now. Bring it on. If that's what it takes to liberate us and find justice at last so be it. We are not cowards like SPPfes and David Pierre.

Anonymous said...

In Sechelles Seychelles today and 29/9/11 not just in term of foot ball - St Michael, St Michel Feast.

Talking of brining down the Bank - Schelles Seychelles Central Bank - Mr Giovanni Ricci would have smiled. This will not bring down the Central Bank of the Nation. We helped build it - "where are the others".

We have been sherved something very special and for all the toil of the Star blog builder and SFP share - the love with him.

We are going into a National Assembly election, building gift of the Chinese Nation - we have done great things in our life time with the Mighty Chinese People/Nation. They have a great grasp/understainding notion about the issues of the Lord of the Ring. We made it importantly possible that those who engineered/concepted the making of the Lords of the Ring Trilogy work to make the Film and in recent the debacle of the Hobitts - Mr C|hristopher Gill Mouvement Seychellois Racine - should we hear one person who do not understand the greater concept of the Lord of the Ring black or white ought not to be on our planet.

Our request to Mr Christopher Gill grab a DVD or CD and take some time to watch - get as many friends as you can.

We have been blessed and President JA Michel is throwing our blessings to the Dogs. Somebody ought to get him tonight to take at least one hour and watch the Lord of the Ring.

In the morning Tell us other wise.

Anonymous said...

Mr Christopher Gill - in Sechelles Seychelles it must be well past midnight - as the Sechelles Seychelles people/nation go to the ballot box to vote for the National Assemble - the building gift of the Chinese government - the very important reasons Prince William came to Sechelles Seychelles for his Honey moon - they could have gone to other place - that deep, deep, deep blue ring our Kate/the Duchess of Cambridge is wearing. Compliment of Princess Diana.

We have a fruit/nut know as the Co co de Mer, we had pleaded with Princess Diana to save her life do something anything and keep it in her abode with a coco de mer - she refused/the higher authorities compel her not to do anything - she lost her life.

People of Sechelles Seychelles we wish you a wise national Assembly election 29/9/11

Anonymous said...

We have notice that however the polite request State House in wishing to play nasty - the forth comeing Natinal Assembly election. We cannot get SBC TV or Radio recorded program. Either President JA Michel refuse or cannot remember what cause/the real reasons for the blood letting, head breaking at the Natinoal Assembly by Seychelles police. "Our archaic/fraternal/illuminati/masonic - heritage - working" in 2009.

Anonymous said...

When did Pp earn 56% ,it has not even been able to earn such a percentage by manipulation and you think it will in a free and fair election?Morevover if Pp feels it have so much people behind him why fake the EC?,why create a fake party?,Why Dissolve the Assembly?Why illegally stop oppostion parties from condcuting thier campaign?

Redicule one does not learn,you inherit it,it is in the genes

The struglle continue,as the distribution of flyers and now that Pp is using intimidation in an attempt to silence our voice,we might post,send your boycott copy by post then we will see if PP will tell us we not allow to send letters to our brothers and sisters.

Pissedoff,dictaors are known to use their guns more than their brains,we will prove to Michel the contatry,we will use our brains more than playing PP incitation of voilence for the outcomes are more powerful than that of a barrel of an AK47,if you dont beleive ask Gadhafi.

The boycott will be a Seism,if Pp insist it will get the protest which will be the tsunami.Pp has srtill not understand that its communist regime is a timing bomb of which the people hold the ignition button.Sooner than latter Michel might understand that.

Do you know what a Peoples' revolution is?If not refer back to Arab springs.

Jeanne D'Arc

Anonymous said...

What ghastly shirts !

Anonymous said...

Civil war is an option in PL mind, because it is closed and out of ideas. It is no different in the streets with a dummy bully.

We have ideas:

We have called for a Round Table to discuss the way forward.

We have called for a Round Table to discuss a Government of Reconstruction and what needs to be done to focus the nation into social cohesion which is necessary to face a downturn and face economic depression which we are in.

So far, Phillippe Boulle agrees with this way forward, Wavel Ramkalawan does not agree with it.
PL is silent.

I will keep on working on both PL and SNP leadership on the issue.

They are the obstacles to progress in Seychelles today. But that can change. Both parties lack capacity to see progress through on their own.

The 56% you refer to Communist, include non seychellois and include the ghost voters on the voters list. It also includes the enslaved who are the poorest and least productive in a Communist system. Similarly, it includes the richest cronies in the country, who have become wealthy when we went bankrupt as a Nation.

Most middle class people are opposition and they are the real back bone of the country today.

Did it ever occur to you that while Seychelles went bankrupt Guy Adam got a $140 Million loan from MCB Mauritius using Port Launay government land (380 acres) to fund a hotel that later dropped the price of hotel rooms in Seychelles permanently to the detriment of the entire Trade?

Seychelles faces a dark period ahead if you do not change your ways and abandon the one party state way of thinking.

The choice is yours.


Seselwa Unite!

Sesel Pou Seselwa!

Christopher Gill

Anonymous said...

56% = 6% fabrike + 5% dead people + 5% paid voters + 40% SPUP.

I am sure this time they will get 99.9% of the 40%.